In my previous blog, I discussed the “game of bites” as a strategy for de-risking lofty goals. While effective, teams often encounter a phase I call the “mid-quarter shakes”. This is a critical juncture where the luxury of time fades, and doubt creeps in. I mark this as the moment where ~50% of the team feels uncertain about their chances of success. It feels akin to a coin toss – will we achieve our goals or not? The cone of uncertainty, it might sound a bit ominous but it’s actually a great way for your team to get through the “mid-quarter shakes.”
The Mid-Quarter Shakes
Throughout my career, I’ve experienced the “mid-quarter shakes” many times. Among these, one particular episode stands out vividly in my memory: the launch of Kraken’s consumer app in the US in 2021. It wasn’t just any launch; it was monumental. The stakes were sky-high, with a lot of money on the line, involvement from half of our company, and a towering heap of public expectations resting on our shoulders. We were poised to make our mark in the world’s most lucrative market, but midway through the quarter, our journey hit a snag.
A pivotal partner lagged behind, failing to align with our stringent user experience standards. This sent ripples of uncertainty through our core R&D team, the very architects of the app. With the launch date looming — a date we had boldly promised — tension was palpable. The team stood at a crossroads: some advocated for postponing the launch, others began to scrutinize our product strategy with a critical eye, and nearly everyone harbored a deep-seated fear of not living up to the towering expectations.
Does this scenario strike a chord? It was during this whirlwind of doubt and debate that the core managers turned to me, seeking counsel. The discussion that ensued wasn’t just about tweaking timelines or adjusting strategies; it was about reassessing our goals in the face of unforeseen challenges.
The Dilemma of Goal Alteration
Altering goals has its upsides, especially if the team deems the original goals unattainable.
- Adjusting targets can reinvigorate motivation, but it may also lead to compromises in business objectives.
- In contrast, a “controlled miss” is an agreement to fall short of goals while getting ahead of planning for significant changes in the next quarter.
While these methods have their merits, they can also result in conflict and dissatisfaction as they inevitably require someone to miss their objectives. I believe goal adjustments and controlled misses should be done only when we embrace the Cone of Uncertainty perspective. Otherwise they risk being done in as a reaction where someone is unproportionally blamed for a team loss.
Introducing the Cone of Uncertainty
Our journey often begins with a goal that is distant, both in terms of time and objectives. This goal is surrounded by numerous variables, each cloaked in uncertainty. This uncertainty breeds a multitude of potential outcomes, much like the widening surface of a cone – a concept we can refer to as the “cone of uncertainty.”
As we embark on the strategy I previously discussed – the “game of bites” – we methodically address these variables in small, manageable segments. This approach allows us to gradually unveil the edges of what is possible, shaping a clearer path toward our goal. As time progresses and we continue to tackle these bite-sized tasks, the once overwhelming number of potential outcomes begins to diminish. The surface area of our metaphorical cone narrows, funneling our efforts more directly towards the goal.
The key to this process is understanding the most important variables that must come together at the magic moment to achieve the goal. By identifying and working on what is most important, we reduce the number of possible outcomes, moving more efficiently through time towards the achievement of our goal.
For example, in a launch for a product: Engineering, Design, Marketing, Legal, Business Development, Customer Success, and Finance/Analytics.
- Engineering must achieve a stable build that can be deployed on production for estimated load and up-time
- Design must be confident that the most critical workflows are very easy to use with a high % completion rate
- Marketing must have key messages and distribution channels ready, creatives locked, and media purchased
- Legal must understand the risks assumed and jurisdictions in which we can launch
- Business Development must have key partners informed and ready to play their part with de-risked expectations
- Customer Success must be up to date with the known holes in the product and documentation ready to go
- Finance should have models ready and data flowing to see impact play out in real time.
Each of these groups have sub-goals “bites” that can be de-risked through time and dependencies mapped to the end-point. Taking a collective confidence of each of these sub-goals at the beginning of goal creation is critical. Doing so again mid-quarter after the “cone has narrowed” will provide a clearer view. The more you are able to discuss through the “game of bites” ahead of time the narrower your cone will be. You want a narrow cone!
What is a Pivot In the Cone Mindset?
When embracing the cone of uncertainty, pivots can be categorized into two types:
- Tactical Pivot: This involves adjustments within our current goal’s scope. “Same game, different numbers”, like modifying revenue impact, launch timelines, or user acquisition targets. Such pivots, backed by solid reasoning and team support, should be encouraged as getting ahead of expectations is better for maintaining confidence.
- Strategic Pivot: This is a fundamental shift, such as moving from a product-led to a partnership-driven strategy or abandoning a mobile app monetized on ads in favor of making a web game using crypto-economics. These significant changes require careful consideration, as they can result in considerable resource loss and demotivation from massive shifts in approach by a team.
Encouraging Tactical Pivots
Tactical pivots are necessary when they are well-reasoned and have 2/3rds team support. A super-majority of the team should feel it is the right move. They can lead to more attainable and realistic goals without drastically altering the original objectives.
Tactical pivots are a great way to have conversations around why this needed to happen for next quarter’s goals. Don’t wait until failure or try a “controlled failure” to plan ahead for future success. Break it down into bites and narrow your cone ahead of time.
Returning to the tale of our challenging launch, here’s how we navigated through the mid-quarter shakes. When faced with a potential delay from our partner during the app launch, I guided the team to scrutinize the situation. We questioned if we could still deliver a high-quality experience on time and evaluated the impact on user adoption and revenue. After narrowing our focus and aligning on crucial outcomes, we presented our strategy to the rest of the team. A super-majority was in support. At that point the managers felt ready for C-suite eyes, I helped them structure their presentation and they received approval to proceed. This decision alleviated the pressure, allowing us to launch the app on schedule and seamlessly integrate the delayed features a few weeks later, maintaining our commitment to the most important outcomes with a small tweak.
The Gravity of Strategic Pivots
Strategic pivots, though sometimes necessary, are monumental decisions. They should be approached with thorough planning and after consulting key opinion leaders within the team or company and then be presented to the team as a choice. We can pursue option A and fail in our mission/vision or B and throw away work, embrace sunk cost loss but have a better chance at long-term success. Presenting things as a choice ensures great trade-off discussion and feelings of team ownership as well.
The Cone of Uncertainty, Get ahead of it!
Effective strategic planning can often circumvent the need for drastic pivots. While more common in smaller companies, even teams of two should rely on solid evidence before making significant shifts. In larger enterprises, these decisions can impact years of work. Planning is essential.
Avoid making pivots feel like a coin-toss and gambling with your team’s success by embracing the cone of uncertainty! Narrowing your cone to the most predictable possible outcomes in a team is critical to success. No matter the size of your company. Even in a 2 person startup it’s possible to narrow your cone with closer goals. I hope you enjoyed my post and it helps your team navigate the “mid-quarter” shakes. If you have any questions, feel free to send me a message or drop a comment.